Far-right’s agenda gets mainstreamed in Berlin

The results of the German elections largely aligned with the opinion polls. This election saw a voter turnout of 83.5%, the highest since German reunification in 1990. Such a turnout typically signals a vote against incumbency, and this election was no exception.

The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD), of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, garnered only 16.4% of the vote, marking its worst performance in a national election. Compared to its 25.7% share in 2021, the party lost a nine-percentage-point share of the vote, reflecting dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition. The Greens managed to hold onto 11.6% of the vote, down from 14.7% in 2021, a decline that may exclude them from participation in the next government.

The Free Democratic Party (FDP), the third member of the ruling coalition, saw an even steeper decline. In 2021, the FDP had secured 11.4% of the vote but has now plummeted to just 4.3%. The party has failed to meet the 5% threshold required for representation in the Bundestag, effectively excluding it from both government and parliament. The FDP’s exit was a key factor in the collapse of the previous coalition government.

A notable development was the performance of the Left Party. In 2021, the Left Party secured 4.9% of the vote, barely making it into the Bundestag. However, since then, it has suffered internal divisions, with the emergence of the breakaway party, the BSW. Despite this split, the Left Party regained support in East Germany, securing 8.8% of the vote in this election. The BSW, which had shown promise in two regional elections in East Germany earlier in 2024, secured only 4.9% of the vote. The BSW might fail to enter the Bundestag.

The biggest electoral gains were made by the AfD, which increased its vote share by over 10 percentage points, and the CDU/CSU, which gained 4.4 percentage points. The largest losses were suffered by the ruling coalition. Young voters (18-24) favoured extremes, supporting AfD and the Left Party, while SPD, CDU, and Greens saw declines within this section. Older voters (60+) predominantly backed SPD and CDU.

With the Bundestag’s total number of seats reduced from 733 to 630 due to recent electoral reforms, the distribution of seats now stands at 208 seats for the CDU/CSU, 151 seats for the AfD, 121 seats for the SPD, 85 seats for the Greens, and 64 seats for the Left Party.

A two-party coalition is generally easier to manage and form, making it likely that the CDU and SPD will negotiate to establish a government. Together, they hold enough seats to form a majority. Though all mainstream parties have ruled out cooperation with the AfD, the AfD itself is willing to join a government. There remains the possibility that the AfD could provide issue-based support for certain legislative measures. While an SPD-CDU coalition would formally block the CDU from engaging with the AfD, nothing prevents the AfD from indirectly influencing government policy through parliamentary manoeuvres and negotiations.

Germany’s electoral system, which employs proportional representation, has also undergone changes in mid-2024. The total number of seats in the Bundestag was reduced, and a majority now requires 316 seats. In this context, the AfD’s rise to over 140 seats is even more significant in a 630-member Bundestag compared to the previous 733-member composition.

Each German voter had two votes: One direct vote for a candidate in 299 constituencies and another vote for a party. The latter was counted to determine the proportion of seats each party would obtain. These results, combined with directly won constituency seats, ultimately shape the composition of the new parliament.

Germany’s electorate of approximately 83 million people included about 59 million eligible voters. This was somewhat lower than the 61 million eligible voters in 2021 due to adjustments made following a new census. Among these, nearly 2 million were first-time voters, predominantly young Germans; 750,000 were newly legalised migrants, including 250,000 Syrians.

While these voters were unlikely to support the AfD, they overwhelmingly sought to safeguard their hard-earned rights. In contrast, younger German voters focused more on economic concerns, energy prices, and domestic security, leading many to favour the AfD.

One of the most striking aspects of this election was the CDU’s strategy to expand its vote share by incorporating elements of the AfD’s domestic agenda. This shift has helped the CDU attract voters who are concerned about issues traditionally championed by the AfD, including migration and national security. While this strategy has yielded electoral gains, it also signals a shift in German politics, with mainstream parties adapting to the populist narrative to maintain their relevance.

The 2025 German elections have reshaped the country’s political landscape. The unprecedented rise of the AfD, the severe losses suffered by the ruling coalition, and the CDU’s gains indicate a significant rightward shift in voter preferences.

As coalition negotiations unfold, Germany faces crucial decisions on governance, political alliances, and the future trajectory of its domestic policies. The next government will need to navigate these challenges while addressing economic concerns, energy security, and social cohesion in an increasingly polarised political environment. How they succeed will determine Germany’s influence in Europe.

Gurjit Singh was formerly India’s ambassador to Germany. The views expressed are personal